| MEDIUM | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
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USD | F:12.1 | P:10.3 |
President trump says we need a little more spend on defense production
U.S. military says at 3 p.m. et, U.S. forces launched operations for a second wave of strikes against iran; the strikes are targeting iranian military capabilities used to threaten vessels freely transiting through the strait of hormuz, an international waterway vital to global commerce
President trump says iran called a while ago
Three U.S. officials tell reuters U.S. strikes on iran are strengthening options for potential U.S. escalation
U.S. president donald trump says he doesn't like giving deadlines
Warren buffett looks for value in today’s market but comes up empty
Senior defense officials looking at cuba military options' - cbs news
Fed beige book: prices increased moderately overall, with nine districts reporting moderate growth, two robust growth, and one slight growth
Fed beige book: employment rose on balance, with five districts showing modest, moderate, or solid gains in employment, and with seven districts experiencing little to no change; economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in eleven of twelve federal reserve districts in late may and june, while one district reported no change; contacts generally expected the economy to continue to expand in the coming months, but several districts noted elevated uncertainty in the outlook for fuel costs.
Iran's top negotiator qalibaf says our armed forces have complete freedom of action as always to confront the 'enemy's aggression'; our national security lies in maintaining the 'iranian arrangements' on the strait of hormuz; negotiation at this stage is not equivalent to compromise, but, along with war, is part of the strategy of resistance and protection of national interests; separating and choosing either negotiation or war as the only solution is a strategic error
Iran's top negotiator qalibaf says our approach in war or negotiation must be based on national interests and security, realistic, and long-term; we have no choice but to rely on our own strength and become strong; if iran is not going to benefit from the memorandum of understanding, we have no reason to adhere to such an understanding
57 economists wrong on inflation; asml earnings bring optimism to ai trade
Iran's top negotiator qalibaf says we have never welcomed war and do not, but we must always be ready to fight and stand to the end to safeguard our national security and interests; we must also use the tools of diplomacy and negotiation to realize and secure national interests; we are in an essential and existential war with america, whose aim besides toppling iran's system is to fragment our beloved country, iran; says 'enemy' strategy has not changed
Fed's cook says policy right now is mildly restrictive; the fomc can take some time to observe more data to confirm that; recent readings on cpi and ppi were just for one month, and that does not make a trend
Fed's cook says the fed cannot do its work without independence; ai tools are presenting great opportunities for small businesses; venture capitalists note it is becoming cheaper to invest in small businesses because of ai
Jpmorgan, goldman sachs, blackrock, vanguard tokenize real stocks for the first time
Fed's cook says inflation expectations are anchored, but that depends on appropriate monetary policy; fed can't take its eye off the ball; following supreme court ruling will continue doing job based on data, not political considerations
Fed's cook says it is prudent to wait 'a bit more time' for inflation to slow, but she is prepared to act if it does not occur 'soon'; since last summer there has been 'a notable shift' in risk towards higher inflation and away from the job market, which appears stable; says there is reason to think disinflation will occur, but sees risks also that price pressures will persist due to tariffs, middle east conflict, ai investment
Memory-chip selloff drags nasdaq 100 lower, sandisk sinks 13%
President trump, on social media, says governor kathy hochul, for political reasons, has terminated all data centers being built, or to be built, in new york state; these companies are now being sought in alabama, florida, texas, arizona, and many other states; new york state has made a terrible decision;
Fed chair warsh says my focus is the real economy, my message to markets is respond to real economy not to what fed says
U.S. military refutes iran's claim that it hit civilian wheat storage site in hoveyzeh on july 14
Fed chair warsh says if there were a disappointment on what ai could do, much of the ai-related capex investments still have alternative uses
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson says we have no plans for negotiations at the moment, we are focused on defence
Fed chair warsh says surge in ai investment, ai-company valuations is notable
Fed chair warsh says will take consideration of both fed mandates when taking on task force recommendations
Fed chair warsh says monetary aggregates are not perfect, but it's a good cross-check
Fed chair warsh says my view is there is no limit to how fast economy can grow; there's a lot of structural change in labor market; labor market part of fed's mandate looks pretty good, inflation part looks less good; there's not much fed can do about individual prices, but can make sure entire grocery aisle doesn't
Fed chair warsh says task forces have 6 months; will start getting briefings from task forces as early as september; not happy with any measures of inflation
Fed chair warsh says inflation won't be permanent; we'll look at our tools, both balance sheet and interest rate, and see if we need to adjust to take on inflation
Fed chair warsh says if trump tries to influence monetary policy i would keep head down, do my job; don't feel uncomfortable receiving a call from trump or chair of banking committee; president never asked me to do anything inappropriate, and wouldn't do it if he did; labor market is in good shape; not sure if the rate cuts are what cause that; monetary policy has caused inflation
Fed chair warsh says balance sheet should be as small as possible, can expand when there's a crisis
Fed chair warsh says each reserve bank should develop a focus of expertise; i believe productivity improvements over time will be structurally disinflationary
Fed chair warsh says likely that as productivity moves up, we should see wages move up more
Fed chair warsh says wages have moved up at a reasonable pace; timing of when wages will move up more from productivity gains is a puzzle; ai is a long-term job creator; in short term on ai's effect, cannot guarantee no disruption or give comfort on jobs; the surge in prices from ai is real; but business capital investment is contributing massively to gdp, and i would guess that trend continues
Fed chair warsh says i don't view a one-time change in prices from ai as necessarily being inflationary
Fed chair warsh says he will be very interested in what inspector general finds about vc chair bowman's post-fomc dinner; would be inappropriate to prejudge facts about that meeting; says he went over and above ethics agreements by selling or nearly completely selling assets earned prior to becoming fed chair
Eia weekly distillates stocks 4.556m barrel build vs 0.100m barrel build est.
USA gasoline inventories 1.533m barrel draw vs 0.800m barrel draw est.
USA crude oil inventories 1.692m barrel draw vs 1.800m barrel draw est.
Fed's williams says move up in medium-term inflation expectations in ny fed survey is not 'flashing a warning sign'
Fed chair warsh says recent inflation data is imperfect gauge for underlying inflation; ai investment is quite good for jobs in the near term; believes ai will help wages and employment in long term; ai will cause disruption in between
Fed's williams says delinquencies over the last year have stabilized at prepandemic levels roughly; broader consumer credit is growing consistent with the economy; k-shaped economy is real; low-to-moderate income families are struggling
Fed's williams says parts of balance sheet are moving ahead organically, fed is just meeting that demand
U.S. central command posts on x "since restarting the naval blockade against iranian ports 17 hours ago, U.S. forces have redirected 2 commercial vessels attempting to run the blockade. the U.S. military remains vigilant and prepared to ensure full compliance."
Fed's williams says a lot of people are still sitting on low mortgages, will take a few years to resolve; fed's balance sheet now in 'steady as she goes' mode; fed is roughly in range of ample reserves
Fed's williams says mortgage rates are very tied to 10-year treasury yield, which is being lifted by strong growth expectations
Fed's williams says seeing an explosion of new businesses in the U.S.
Fed's williams says warsh is bringing fresh thinking that is very welcome; there was very strong support for move away from forward guidance; we don't have a clear direction about which way interest rates are going or when
Fed's williams says warsh profoundly believes in fed's mission; warsh understands how important it is to deliver price stability and maximum employment