MEDIUM Employment Cost Index q/q
USD F:0.8% P:0.9%

Samsung profits surge 1300%; 30-year bond yield highest since 2007; momo's favorite semi etf loses 70%

Major indices are trading higher a day after the federal reserve left interest rates unchanged. strong quarterly results from microsoft have fueled a rebound in semiconductor stocks following their recent pullback, helping lift the broader market.

Iran's presstv posts on x "iran's army announces that it has struck power generators, navigation systems, and administrative and support buildings of the terrorist us military at the sheikh isa base in bahrain with arash drones as part of the 26th wave of operation sa'eqeh."

U.S. military says no U.S. aircraft were destroyed or damaged in recent attempted iranian attacks; all missiles and drones were intercepted or failed to reach targeted areas; commercial nora m/t nora has broken through the U.S. blockade

Yemen's houthis are attacking saudi arabia from iraq, sources say' - reuters exclusive

USA natural gas storage 28b vs 37b est.

Live on bloomberg tv, kevin hassett is the director of the white house national economic council, asked if warsh is hawk or dove, says 'he's a realist

Trump's tariffs were supposed to shrink the us goods trade deficit— it grew 4% instead

Stock market today: s&p 500, nasdaq 100 futures gain as fed's preferred gauge core pce inflation eases to 0.1% monthly—meta, microsoft, apple in focus (updated)

USA personal spending (mom) for june 0.3% vs 0.4% est.

USA pce price index (mom) for june revises prior from 0.4% to 0.5%

USA pce price index (yoy) for june 3.7% vs 3.7% est.

USA gdp price index (qoq) for q2 6.3% vs 4.1% est.

USA pce price index (mom) for june -0.1% vs -0.1% est.

USA core pce price index (yoy) for june 3.3% vs 3.3% est.

USA continuing jobless claims 1,782k vs 1,800k est.

USA gdp (qoq) for q2 1.5% vs 2.1% est.

USA core pce price index (mom) for june 0.1% vs 0.2% est.

USA core pce prices for q2 3.40% vs 3.50% est.

USA initial jobless claims 197k vs 201k est.

Eu sets fall timeline to start advisory group on trade conflicts' - bloomberg

The wall street journal reported bidding war among exxon, chevron, others for venezuela's best oil fields has hit an impasse

China commerce ministry demands us reverse robot ban, threatens retaliation to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests

Stock market: will s&p 500 open up or down today?

Warsh triggers market roller-coaster as hawkish inflation vow hits stocks

Amazon q2 preview: ecommerce growth may be overshadowed by aws momentum again

Fed chair warsh says we are not going to be constrained by market prices; markets can be a very good source of information, not a determinitive source; just trying to make sure that source of information is as direct and unfiltered as possible; between now and year end, i am committing to press conferences this year

Fed chair warsh says wanted a divergence of views inside each committee; this is seeing whether new ideas can catalyze a better discussion in the room; i have known almost all of them for a very long time; we are accountable to our oversight committees and the remit from congress; hear from households and businesses - 'deliver it already'; we are focused like a laser on delivering; if you look broadly at market prices they are not saying all clear, they have tightened financial conditions

Fed chair powell says the inflation remit itself is quite narrow, determined by pce; we have spent an inordinate amount of time looking at our monetary policy, our tools, the data at our disposal; the decision we made today was farthest thing from inertia that i can imagine; if i look at treasury curve, the dollar, what they are broadly saying is fomc does own it, has the credulity to deliver; i selected 15 subject matter experts to tackle 5 questions; we are the decision makers

Fed chair warsh says in terms of reaction function, any central banker when he sees stable employment and underlying inflation moving higher is more inclined to tighten policy; offering forward guidance in crisis mode is prudent, not in benign moments; who knows what in january we will say about strategy; forward guidance requires transition; to achieve 2% inflation i am looking at broader set of inflation data than just pce; it is not a perfefct science, but we have data project to separate noise from sign

Fed chair warsh says surge in capex around ai makes that judgment harder for the moment; will let dissenters speak for themselves; comforted that markets were not responding to us, to dots but to real time events; i think that has been a useful development; we don't endorse any market move but watch them with keen interest; surprise is not the objective function; everything should be in service to goal of making best decision; we did not come into this meeting constrained

Fed chair warsh says would like in jackson hole to frame the big questions, will be checking with task forces before jackson hole; that may or may not inform anything i have to say in jackson hole; i don't believe either part of the mandate is at war with the other part; don't believe mandate is an 'either or' proposition; there are no orphans here with regard to dual mandates; doing well for the moment on employment mandate; i think we have a reasonable sense of what aggregate supply and demand

Fed chair warsh says to what extent are these shocks broadening inflation; if inflation continues to be elevated through forecast period, interest rates could be part of solution; shocks in this juncture make the job a little tougher; i would consider what we did was a rigorous review of economic situation; if you were to describe this as a pause, financial markets would take the other side of that; have not begun to consider what will go into jackson hole speech

Fed chair warsh says that can help inform our decision in 7-8 weeks; broader discussion showed a lot of agreement on the hard questions; my own judgment this is period watchful thinking not watchful waiting; i think there was a misimpression that we were more tolerable of a somewhat higher inflation target, we will deliver the 2% target; we are going to be judged by how we perform; a lot of our focus was on understanding underlying inflation dynamics amid shocks

Fed chair warsh says we got some encouraging inflation data and we will be watching over period ahead; don't want to leave impression we are breathlessly waiting for incoming data; i would not say we over relied on a single piece of data; rates are higher today than 42 days ago; markets have made their judgments; markets in the intervening period have a lot to decide; we will continue to watch that market information

Apple q3 preview: stock hits all-time highs, will earnings justify the momentum?

Fed holds rates at 3.75%, but three members voted to hike (updated)

Fed chair warsh says asked for a good family fight and got one; there was a lot of agreement that i heard that we have the power to deliver stable prices; it was an active robust discussion; dissents don't capture full essence of discussion; came out believing this is the right team to battle high inflation; problem with data dependence is the data and the dependence; what matters is the trend; there was large majority support for decision today

Fed chair warsh says trying not to interfere with market signal; markets are reacting to events much more directly over last 42 days; we are observing it but trying to stay out of it; you are interested in the market's reaction function; interpreting markets is an imperfect business; economy output is solid, labor market solid, steady; treasury market seems to be saying that as well; that is why we're seeing in nominals and reals even though we have not done much in 42 days

Fed chair warsh says investment is strong; ai investment is laying groundwork for future growth; we need to observe market reaction to developments direct and unfiltered; vigorous discussion centered on 4 questions: 1. talked about 5 years of high inflation, 2. considered recent economic shocks, 3. talked about price increases arising from shocks, 4. discussed monetary policy tools and strategies; do these indicate broader inflationary dynamic

Fed chair warsh says nominal and real yields are materially higher; some of the increases between fomc meetings are among most significant in decades; prices reacted in real time to incoming information, reduction in guidance may have been a factor; markets will continue to respond in direction and magnitude as they see fit; see this as a positive, we will not hesitate to act; market participants learning to play ball, not the referee

Fed chair warsh says discussion was collegial; economy showing impressive resilience; committee remains resolute to deliver price stability; committee is steering clear of forecasting; 5 years of high inflation has left an impression that is hard to shake that fed's implicit target was above 2%; there is no soft target; inflation cannot be cured in 9 weeks; there was nothing inertial about our discussions or strategy

Sam altman to meet with white house’s wiles this week ahead of ai framework deadline' - cnbc

Fomc: job gains have kept pace with workforce, unemployment rate has changed little; fomc is continuing policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system; fed vote in favor of policy was 9-3, with cleveland fed president hammack, minneapolis fed president kashkari and dallas fed president logan dissenting in favor of a 25-basis point increase

Fomc: federal reserve leaves key overnight interest rate unchanged in 3.50-3.75% range, says it will deliver price stability; says inflation remains elevated relative to 2% goal in part reflecting supply shocks in certain sectors including energy; economic activity is expanding at solid pace despite elevated uncertainty; productivity growth and capital investment are strong

Federal reserve issues fomc statement for july 28-29, 2026 (link in body)

USA fed interest rate decision 3.75% vs 3.75% est. (unchanged)

Fed funds rate 3.75% vs 3.75% est.

Us looks to allies to prepare for 6g' - semafor

Trump bans chinese humanoid robots; micron competitor sk hynix creates volatility; fed decision looms